energy demand by sector
The future development pathways for the energy demand of the Transition Economies are shown in Figure 6.59 for the Reference and 6 both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in the Transition Economies increases by more than 33% from the current 48,016 PJ/a to 63,988 PJ/a in 2050.The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 30% in the basic and 28% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption. By 2050 it is expected to reach 33,742 PJ/a and 34,697 PJ/a in the advanced scenario.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 6.60). Because of the growing use of electric vehicles however, electricity demand increases to 1,646 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference case efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 1,012 TWh/a. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 1,867 TWh/a in 2050, still 22% below the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 6.61).
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 1,012 TWh/a electricity. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology.
Compared to the Reference scenario, heat consumption equivalent to 9,101 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease to 4,137 PJ/a by 2050, saving 60% compared to the Reference scenario. This is achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person-kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario goes one step further and factors in a faster decrease in transport energy demand of 64%. While electricity demand increases, the overall final energy use falls to 3,737 PJ/a.