energy demand by sector
The potential future development pathways for India’s primary energy demand are shown in Figure 6.68 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total energy demand triples from the current 25,203 PJ/a to 78,048 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand in India will increase by about 105% and is expected to reach 51,718 PJ/a by 2050.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario foresees a demand of 54,763 PJ/a by 2050 and is therefore roughly at the same level.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase substantially (see Figure 6.69). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, a higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 3,439 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 615 TWh/a.This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 4,047 TWh/a in 2050.
Efficiency gains for heat and cooling supply are also significant. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heating and cooling can even be reduced (see Figure 6.70). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 5,110 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.
In the transport sector, it is assumed, with a fast growing economy, that under the Energy [R]evolution scenario energy demand will increase dramatically - from 1,708 PJ/a in 2007 to 8,677 PJ/a by 2050.This still saves 42% compared to the Reference scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, shifting freight transport from road to rail and by changes in travel behaviour. Because India, as a developing country, has a relatively low starting point, transport demand (in terms of kilometres per person and freight volumes) has not been reduced any further than in the basic version. Due to a wider use of more efficient electric drives, however, overall final energy demand in transport falls to 7,277 PJ/a, 51% lower than in the Reference case.