Energy Blue Print
Archive 2010

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by an increasing share of renewable electricity. By 2050, 74% of the 6 electricity produced in Other Developing Asia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute more than 57% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 48 GW to 616 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 13 within the next 40 years.

Figure 6.81 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development pathway, with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 59% by 2030 and 94% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 363 GW in 2030 and 1,037 GW by 2050, 68% higher than in the basic version.

None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for hydro power, for example, is relatively high at 20% in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for photovoltaic less than 3% has been used in the advanced scenario.

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