The future development pathways for the Developing Asia region’s primary energy demand are shown in Figure 6.77 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total energy demand more than doubles from the current 31,880 PJ/a to 69,171 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a much smaller 34% increase in consumption is expected by 2050, reaching 42,611 PJ/a. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a demand of 40,549PJ/a by 2050 and is therefore roughly at the same level.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately in Developing Asia (see Figure 6.78). With the introduction of serious efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 2,171 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 1,329 TWh/a. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 3,548 TWh/a in 2050, still 5% below the Reference case.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are also significant (see Figure 6.79). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 3,566 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will rise to 8,016 PJ/a by 2050, saving 43% compared to the Reference scenario. As this is a developing region it has a relatively low starting point for transport energy demand. In the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario transport demand has therefore not been reduced (in terms of kilometres per person and freight volume) any further than in the basic version. Due to a wider use of more efficient electric drives, however, electricity demand increases but the overall final energy demand falls to 6,416 PJ/a, 54% lower than in the Reference case.