In 2050, the car fleet in China will be 20 times larger than today. Today, more medium to large-sized cars are driven in China with an unusually high annual mileage. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric power trains, and lightweight construction, will help to limit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of 2.9, reaching 17,096 PJ/a in 2050. As China already has a large fleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 25% of total transport energy is covered by electricity.
By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while in the advanced version the share will already reach 19% in 2030 and 54% by 2050.