The future development pathways for China’s final energy demand are shown in Figure 6.86 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by a factor of 2.2 from the current 83,922 PJ/a to 183,886 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand increases up to 2020 by 39% and then decreases to a level of 100,191 PJ/a in 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario envisages a demand of 107,104 PJ/a by 2050 and is therefore roughly at the same level.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately (see Figure 6.87). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 7,693 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 3,562 TWh/a. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 8,748 TWh/a in 2050.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are also large. Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 12,778 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050 under the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increase considerably, from 5,882 PJ/a in 2007 to 17,096 PJ/a by 2050. However this still saves 50% compared to the Reference scenario. By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while in the advanced version the share will already reach 19% in 2030 and 54% by 2050.The advanced scenario assumes no further transport demand reduction (passenger kilometres or freight) than in the basic version.