A dynamically growing renewable energy market will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 78% of the electricity produced in OECD Pacific will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 43% of electricity generation.
The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 77 GW to 627 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 8.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 35% by 2030 and 98% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 273 GW in 2030 and 810 GW by 2050, 29% higher than in the basic version.
To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy sources a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance. Figure 6.99 shows the comparative of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by elelctricty from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a higher share of fluctuating power generation source (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 17% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.
None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for geothermanl power, for example, is relatively high at 27% in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for PV only 0.4% has been used in the advanced scenario.