energy demand by sector
The future development pathways for OECD Pacific’s final energy demand are shown in Figure 6.95 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD Pacific increases by more than 9% from the current 37,588 PJ/a to 40,793 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand decreases by 40% and 43% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 22,417 PJ/a and 21,299 PJ/a in the advanced scenario. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential and services sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level (see Figure 6.96).The growing use of electric vehicles however, leads to an increased demand reaching a level of 1,994 TWh/a 2050. Electricity demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is still 763 TWh/a lower than in the Reference scenario in 2050.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier while more journeys - for both freight and persons - will be shifted towards electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanved Energy [R]evolution is higher and reaches 2,139 TWh/a in 2050, still 10% below the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricty sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 6.97). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 1,730 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by 40% to 3,514 PJ/a by 2050, saving 23% compared to the Reference scenario. The advanced version factors in a faster decrease of the final energy demand for transport.This can be achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. While electricity demand increases, the overall final energy use falls to 3,163 PJ/a, 46% lower than in the Reference case.