The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out nuclear power plants and reduce the number of coal-fired power plants after 2020. By 2050, 75.6% of the electricity produced in South Africa will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly solar thermal power plants (CSP) and wind, as well as modern biomass and PV – will contribute 73% of electricity generation. The following strategy paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:

• The phasing out of nuclear power plants and rising electricity demand will be met initially by bringing into operation new highly efficient gasfired combined-cycle power plants, plus an increasing capacity of wind turbines, concentrated solar power plants photovoltaic and biomass. In the long term, wind and solar (both CSP and photovoltaic) will be the most important sources of electricity generation.
• Solar energy, hydro and biomass will make substantial contributions to electricity generation. In particular, as non-fluctuating renewable energy sources, hydro and solar thermal, combined with efficient heat storage, are important elements in the overall generation mix.
• The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from 1 GW in 2005 to 86 GW in 2050. Increasing renewable capacity by a factor of eight within the next 40 years requires political support and well-designed policy instruments, however. There will be a considerable demand for investment in new production capacity over the next 20 years. As investment cycles in the power sector are long, decisions on restructuring the world’s energy supply system need to be taken now.

To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance. This mobilisation depends on technical potentials, cost reduction and technological maturity. Figure 6.7 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro-power and wind power will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from modern biomass, photovoltaic and solar thermal (CSP) energy. None of these numbers describe a maximum feasibility, but a possible balanced approach. With the right policy development, the solar industry believes that a much further uptake could happen.