employment effects

• There are close to 2.9 million energy jobs projected in China in both scenarios in 2010, with about 40,000 more in the[R]evolution scenario (note that these only include jobs associated with the electricity sector)13.
• In 2020, job numbers in both scenarios fall relative to 2010, but the [R]evolution scenario keeps 2.2 million jobs compared to 1.9million in the Reference scenario. The [R]evolution has 300,000more jobs than the Reference scenario.
• In 2030 the [R]evolution retains just over 2 million jobs, while the Reference scenario job numbers fall to 1.5 million. The [R]evolution has 500,000 more jobs than the Reference scenario at 2030.

The most striking feature of the job projections for China is the decrease between 2010 and 2020. Job numbers fall from close to2.9 million in both scenarios to just 1.9 million in the Reference scenario, and 2.1 million in the [R]evolution scenario.

There are more power sector jobs in China in the [R]evolution scenario at every stage. In 2010, [R]evolution jobs are about 40,000higher than the Reference scenario. By 2020, the [R]evolution scenario has 300,000 additional jobs, and by 2030 the [R]evolution scenario has about 570,000 more jobs than the Reference scenario.

Over time, both scenarios show significant job losses, but more jobs are retained in the [R]evolution scenario. Coal sector jobs fall substantially between 2010 and 2020 in both scenarios. For example, in the Reference scenario jobs in the coal sector are 100,000 less at 2020than 2010, continuing current trends world wide. In the [R]evolution scenario coal losses are greater, but only by about 20,000. In the[R]evolution, these losses are counteracted by strong growth in the renewable power sectors, particularly wind energy, combined heat and power, and solar PV, with the effect that more jobs are retained in the[R]evolution scenario. In the Reference case, job growth in renewable energy is weak, so the job losses in the coal sector dominate.

The job losses projected between 2010 and 2020 are largely are sult of the increased prosperity in China. The model shows a fall in employment because there is a strong projected growth in prosperity and labour productivity. If no regional multiplier was used, this projection would show more stable levels of employment.

To model the future jobs, we used specific data for the Chinese the coal sector, which could be an underestimate of the change in productivity in coal production. If this is the case, the reality would be an even greater loss of jobs in the coal sector. However, both the increase in productivity and the scale of job losses is very much a matter of policy. Currently it is Chinese government policy to close the small, employment intensive,village coal mines, which would have a huge impact on coal sector jobs.It may also be government policy to transfer these jobs into, for example, energy efficiency, cogeneration, or renewable energy, to better manage regional employment levels.The job multiplier used for China is1.9 in 2010, 1.2 by 2020, and to 1 by 2030. This fall is a result of the projected 7% annual growth in GDP per capita, derived from IEA200714. It projected that China will have the same GDP per capita asthe OECD average by 2030, so the generating capacity which supported 1.8 jobs in 2010 will only support 1 job by 2030.