employment effects

• There are 861,000 jobs projected in the [R]evolution scenario in2010, compared to 881,000 in the Reference scenario.
• In 2020, job numbers in both scenarios fall. There is somewhat better retention of jobs in the Reference scenario, with 799,000compared to 741,000 in the [R]evolution scenario.
• By 2030 the job numbers in the [R]evolution scenario are increasing, and there are 754,000. Jobs in the Reference scenario continue to fall, reaching 738,000.

Figure 3.38 shows that, if only energy supply jobs are considered,the Reference has slightly higher job numbers in 2020. However,electricity use in the [R]evolution scenario is reduced by 11% in2020 compared to the Reference case, and 17% by 2030. This will require a major energy efficiency program, potentially creating large numbers of additional construction and energy management jobs.

Over time, both scenarios show significant losses in coal sector employment, with 100,000 coal jobs lost by 2010 in the Reference scenario. While losses in the coal sector are greater in the[R]evolution scenario, strong growth in the renewable sectors,particularly wind power, more than compensates, resulting insignificantly higher job numbers in the [R]evolution scenario.